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If you’ve been a long-time follower of my blog, you’ve probably wondered at some point:
Axol, how are your takes so based?
The answer is simple.
I’ve mastered a skill that few others possess. A skill that allows me to navigate the realm of truth in a way that leads to the light. That skill is called:
Critical Thinking
A.K.A the ability to challenge a claim with rigor, regardless of source.
See, most people are capable of thinking critically about a claim that opposes their worldviews, but you’ve probably noticed that they don’t apply the same standards to views they feel positively or neutrally about.
I’m not like that.
In fact, I even tend to go overboard, and question things too much, to the point where I’m hesitant to take a hard stance on a topic unless I’m absolutely sure I’m right.
Better to be safe than sorry, though.
I often get frustrated when people make obvious reasoning errors where it counts the most, yet no one else points them out (not a flex, btw). And I know they’re smart enough to do it, but deep down, they’re afraid of the backlash.
There was this social experiment ran by Solomon Asch in the 50s.
A group was brought into a room with a board that had three lines drawn on it, each line clearly differing in length. The trick was that all but one group member were paid actors, who confidently gave wrong answers when asked by the coordinators which line was closest in length to a fourth sample line. The genuine participant was the last to answer, and they often answered in line with the majority opinion.
But they never believed it. They just went along out of fear.
This experiment is relevant now more than ever. It explains how otherwise smart people can be duped by peer pressure.
And this doesn’t just apply to factual claims; it also applies to moral ones as well.
So if you want to join the elite critical thinkers club (whose only member so far is me), strap in.
1. What Are Your Principles?Your principles are a set of commandments you adhere to above all else.
For example, if you’re a theist, you probably adhere to Divine Command Theory.
But if you’re not, you should come with a set of principles and rank them based on which you prioritize (in case of clashes between them). For example:
- Advocate for people’s rights and freedoms
- Look out for your family/friends/community
- Value truth
- Enjoy life
- etc
You don’t have to have the same set of principles as others. But having principles allows you to make all kinds of judgments without having to wrestle with cognitive dissonance all the time. A good set of principles naturally leads to a balanced worldview, and a bad or incomplete one leads to flimsy rationalizations of strange ideas.
2. Examine AssumptionsEvery conclusion is a function of premises. But when these premises aren’t explicitly stated, they’re called assumptions because they’re taken for granted.
I’m really good at mapping out other people’s beliefs and arguments, because I’m very attentive to detail. It’s this attentiveness that allows me to deconstruct and demolish people’s arguments.
But keep in mind that there are an innumerable amount of assumptions in many multifaceted arguments, so you have to be able to hone in on only the most relevant and most contentious ones. Otherwise, you’ll be stuck in analysis paralysis.
Being able to question your own assumptions is the ultimate skill. It allows your beliefs to be fluid enough that if you encounter evidence that challenges your assumptions, you can change your belief without taking a hit to your delicate ego.
For example, ask yourself the following:
- How much freedom should be traded for safety?
- How often is mainstream science wrong? And in what ways?
- What should be the limits of free speech?
- What kinds of problems benefit more from bottom-up (individualistic) solutions compared to top-down (systemic) ones? And vice versa?
- etc
Don’t be afraid to question ideas considerered “objective” or “settled”. At worst, you’ll at least learn why they’re true, instead of taking them for granted.
3. Stop With The Identity PoliticsIf you’re passionate about an issue to the point that you openly and repeatedly advocate for it, it’s very tempting to tie so much of your identity to one side of the issue. And that’s especially the case when you have a following and a career built from said advocacy.
The problem with this is that you make it more difficult to change your perspective when you’re so entrenched and dependent on it. Labels are useful, but they should describe you, rather than you orienting yourself around them.
There’s so much diversity of opinion within even the most niche of ideologies, but identifying too much with a label makes you hesitant to voice an opinion that doesn’t align with the majority, which risks shunning and being cast out.
For example:
- If your political party’s leader isn’t acting in your interests, it’s not a betrayal to vote for a different party.
- You can criticize your own side while agreeing with most of its opinions.
- You shouldn’t assume people who disagree with you are evil, stupid, or mentally ill. They may simply disagree on practicality, rather than on principle.
You’re an independent person.
You don’t have to shelter yourself from opposing ideas.
Social media algorithms incentivize engagement, which means they’ll show you more of what you’re already consuming. This makes it really easy to go down a rabbit hole where you start to believe that the majority opinion is what you see.
This plays into our worst cognitive biases. In reality, there are many reasonable people on both sides of most issues, because the truth isn’t always easy to arrive at.
Reddit is a major culprit in this. Subreddits are ran by moderators who can’t be held accountable, and people who moderate political subreddits tend to be very partisan. This leads to trigger-happy mods who use their power to ban people who express even the slightest disagreement with the majority opinion.
It’s good for a community to limit discussion topics so as to preserve its purpose. However, this shouldn’t be the case with contentious political topics, because what you end up with is people preaching to the choir to reaffirm group status and earn social brownie points, rather than any substantive discussion.
Just like how incest eventually produces physical deformities due to reproduction with too similar genes, echo chambers produce ideological deformities by reproducing with too similar ideas. All this rots the critically thinking mind.
Unfortunately, there’s nothing we can really do about echo chambers. But what you can do is challenge yourself. What’s the harm in perusing ideas from other communities? It’s not a waste of time to learn how others think. And if you’re worried about self-doubt, what does that say about the strength of your ideas?
5. Value ConsistencyEveryone has double standards. It’s nothing to be ashamed of.
However, if someone calls out your double standards, and you don’t have a good explanation as to why you apply different standards to similar situations, then do us all a favor and be ashamed.
Here are a couple examples:
- When a capitalist state crumbles, a communist blames it on capitalism. But when a communist state crumbles, they claim that the communism just wasn’t done right.
- A feminist claims that men and women should have equal representation in the workforce. However, when asked if this representation should extend to the less pleasant jobs such as sewage, construction, or military, she bites her tongue.
- A diversity advocate claims that a lack of proportional representation of races in any field is evidence of systemic discrimination. However, when pointed to fields where minorities are over-represented, they jump through hoops to explain why it’s not actually discriminatory.
And here are examples of beliefs that might seem self-contradictory but aren’t:
- You can be pro-“free speech” while also supporting people being cancelled for abhorrent ideas, as long as that cancellation isn’t due to government interference.
- You can claim that one culture is superior to another if it values human rights more. Cultural relativism isn’t absolute.
- You can believe that we as a society are responsible for taking care of our least fortunate, while not shaming individuals who choose not to do so. This is because collective responsibility doesn’t imply individual responsibility from everyone.
It’s tricky stuff, but as long as your justifications are based on sound and consistent principles, you’re good.
6. Spot FallaciesHere’s a handy Wikipedia link to a list of all known fallacies.
But you don’t need to memorize all these, because the average person can sus out most of these by intuition alone.
Reductio ad absurdum is a technique that helps you spot fallacious reasoning. You take a train of logic and use it to argue for a claim you know is ridiculous, thus showing that the reasoning itself is incorrect.
With enough experience, you’ll be able to label these on the spot. Though when debating others, I’d advise not naming them out loud. You’re better off just explaining the reasoning error directly, rather than spouting off fallacies like a nerd with his encyclopedia. Most people won’t do the research into understanding the fallacy if you don’t explain it to them.
For example, instead of just saying, “false dichotomy,” say, “well actually there’s a third option that’s very likely too.”
Or instead of saying, “appeal to nature,” say, “just because it’s natural doesn’t mean it’s okay,” then list an example or two.
Eventually, you want to be able to spot these fallacies in your own thinking before a belief takes root. This is especially important if your personality predisposes you to impulsive and irrational beliefs based on feelings.
Here’s an example you might remember:
Women say they’d feel safer encountering a bear in the woods than a random man, because, statistically, women are more likely to be victimized at the hands of men than by bears.
Give it a thought and see if you can spot the fallacy.
Got it?
If you didn’t, that’s okay. This is one of those really tricky statistical fallacies.
The data they drew from to make their conclusion simply takes the number of women who’ve been victims of bear attacks in a given year, and divides that by the population of women in a given country. A similar collection is done for victims of men.
There’s nothing wrong with the data itself. The mistake these women made was neglecting to factor in conditional probabilities.
The probabilities they calculated from this data include all women in that country, even if they hadn’t gone anywhere near a forest that year. And obviously, people tend to live outside forests in most countries. In other words, this probability has too much noise, and doesn’t take situational factors into account.
Instead, they’d have to prove that the probability of being attacked GIVEN that they’ve ALREADY had an encounter in the forest is higher for men than bears.
Other common statistical fallacies include:
- Citing a recent upward or downward trend in a graph using too short of a time-frame, and when zoomed out a little more, is just a small spike or dip in the grand scheme of things.
- Using percentage changes on top of percentages. For example, claiming that people who eat food “A” are 50% more likely to experience heart disease than those who eat food “B”. But when you look at the data, it’s actually 1.5% for food “A”, and 1% for food “B”. The percentage was applied on top of what was already a percentage.
- Citing averages, but neglecting medians and distributions when analyzing data.
- Zooming in to a graph while hiding the scale on the y-axis, then drawing a big slope to exaggerate an effect when presenting it.
Oh, if only I had a nickel for every time someone misrepresented a study in an argument.
Or quoted a sentence out of context from an academic paper to bolster their point.
Or even cited a news article after claiming that “studies show.”
What’s going on here?
Rhetorical question. Most people don’t really care about studies as a science. They’re used more as fodder in an argument rather than a stable base from which to draw conclusions.
If you’re gonna cite a study, READ IT. And I don’t mean read every little detail about the statistical analysis of the results (thought that’s a bonus). That stuff requires A LOT of study to fully understand. But at least get a good overview:
- Title
- Abstract & Context
- Hypothesis
- Methodology
- Variables
- Conclusion
and understand the strengths and limitations of different methodologies.
For example, surveys are good for soliciting information en masse, but you always have to consider that answers may be influenced by selection bias (i.e certain kinds of people being more or less likely to respond to the survey) and cognitive distortions (i.e questions about one’s own character, accounts of previous experiences, well-known memory blind spots, etc).
Correlational studies are good for analyzing trends, but it’s important to know which factors are being controlled for if you want to use them in an argument. The gender wage gap fiasco happened because people didn’t realize that the studies weren’t controlling for hours worked, experience, and how different women’s jobs were from men’s. Because of this ignorance, people automatically assumed it was due to pervasive discrimination.
Experimental studies are what many consider to be the gold standard for proving causative links, because they isolate the causes they’re testing. Having said that, you have to check for the following:
- Is the sample size high enough?
- How were the subjects sampled? Would the results generalize to the average person?
- Who’s funding the study? Do the conductors have a financial incentive to report certain results?
- Is the person who put forth the hypothesis the same one conducting the experiment? Could that lead to experimenter bias, where the conductor unwittingly introduces factors that may influence how subjects respond?
- For health-related experiments, is there a placebo control group? And how long did the study run for? Do short-term improvements diminish or even regress in the long term?
- Has the study been replicated by independent researchers?
I don’t blame researchers for how their studies are misused. I blame you. But I’ll forgive you if you change your ways.
8. Prepare Against The Best CounterargumentsOf all these tactics, this is the one that elevates my takes above most.
In game theory, there’s a concept called minimaxing.
This is when you calculate every response your opponent has to every one of your moves, then you pick the set of moves that guarantees victory.
Obviously, debate is different from a game in that there are an unlimited amount of moves (arguments) one can make, but the idea still applies.
Instead of anticipating every counterargument, you should anticipate the best ones. This means placing the weakest or most contentious parts of your beliefs under scrutiny.
If you make an honest effort and find objections to be too strong, you should consider changing your mind. Otherwise, you should feel more confident entering a debate and knowing that you’ve already pre-empted most reasonable objections.
You might’ve wondered how in-person debaters often counter their opponent’s objections so precisely and on the spot. It’s not all quick wit. A lot of it is anticipation and preparation.
For example, if you claim that your specific coding methodology is superior, and you can’t find hard evidence, then you should at least have a very well-reasoned argument based on how developers usually go about reading and writing code, rather than projecting your own ideals.
Or if you’re gonna use historical diagnosis rates to claim that mental illness has been on the rise since the 80s, you’d better have a counter-objection prepared as to why this can’t be explained by an increase in societal acceptance and mental health interventions, as opposed to being a literal increase in the rate of mental health problems.
Just one more.
If you’re gonna paint a certain group of people as violent extremists, then it’s of the utmost importance that you have damn solid justifications for that claim, and be prepared to defend them in a way that doesn’t lead to labelling obviously non-violent people as violent.
ConclusionJust by reading this article, you’ve already exposed your mind to a higher form of cognition.
And it’s irreversible.
You’re welcome.
Thanks for reading, and question everything.
Except that. Everything but that.