Stats Chat

Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 10.37 13.41 -3.00 Bulls 9.88 8.86 1.00 Glasgow 6.52 6.18 0.30 Stormers 6.17 4.17 2.00 Lions 3.11 -1.19 4.30 Connacht 2.88 -1.39 4.30 Munster 2.55 3.65 -1.10 Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90 Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90 Cardiff Rugby -1.74 -2.74 1.00 Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10 Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10 Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60 Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70 Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00 Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers May 16 22 – 16 -1.90 FALSE 2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht May 16 5 – 26 3.10 FALSE 3 Ulster vs. Glasgow May 16 22 – 26 1.30 FALSE 4 Sharks vs. Zebre May 16 54 – 19 21.80 TRUE 5 Bulls vs. Benetton May 17 45 – 19 23.20 TRUE 6 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 17 68 – 14 17.80 TRUE 7 Scarlets vs. Dragons May 17 35 – 35 9.20 FALSE 8 Munster vs. Lions May 17 24 – 17 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 Glasgow 10.60 2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 Bulls 14.30 3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 Stormers 14.90 4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 Leinster 14.30

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 13.45 11.56 1.90 Montpellier 5.96 -0.21 6.20 Stade Rochelais 4.99 1.22 3.80 Stade Francais 4.84 -2.17 7.00 Bordeaux Begles 4.67 4.78 -0.10 Section Paloise 4.28 2.21 2.10 Clermont 4.18 1.88 2.30 Racing 92 2.72 1.88 0.80 Toulon -0.53 3.49 -4.00 Lyon -1.01 -0.45 -0.60 Castres Olympique -1.21 0.59 -1.80 Bayonne -2.81 1.48 -4.30 USA Perpignan -4.72 -3.37 -1.30 Montauban -21.94 -10.00 -11.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan May 17 37 – 32 16.80 TRUE 2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 17 33 – 36 -0.40 TRUE 3 Lyon vs. Bayonne May 17 42 – 35 8.50 TRUE 4 Montauban vs. Stade Francais May 17 25 – 73 -18.50 TRUE 5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 17 43 – 28 9.00 TRUE 6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont May 17 24 – 19 6.80 TRUE 7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain May 17 38 – 10 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais May 31 Stade Rochelais -20.40 2 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise May 31 Montpellier 8.20 3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne May 31 Stade Francais 14.10 4 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon May 31 Stade Toulousain 21.00 5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique May 31 USA Perpignan 3.00 6 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Jun 01 Clermont 8.00 7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 Toulon 1.30

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 25 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hurricanes 13.94 8.29 5.60 Chiefs 12.66 12.36 0.30 Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20 Blues 7.43 8.91 -1.50 Brumbies 3.91 5.59 -1.70 Reds 0.72 1.74 -1.00 Highlanders -3.43 -3.06 -0.40 Western Force -3.66 -6.29 2.60 Waratahs -4.34 -5.84 1.50 Fijian Drua -7.85 -7.64 -0.20 Moana Pasifika -13.01 -7.88 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 15 42 – 12 20.20 TRUE 2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs May 16 35 – 50 2.90 FALSE 3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 16 24 – 47 0.20 FALSE 4 Western Force vs. Reds May 16 19 – 14 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 22 Crusaders 0.60 2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 22 Brumbies -3.30 3 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds May 23 Reds -10.20 4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 23 Hurricanes 22.40 5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 23 Western Force 9.20

 

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 12.04 10.30 1.70 Leicester Tigers 11.97 5.55 6.40 Saracens 10.00 5.03 5.00 Northampton Saints 9.34 -1.47 10.80 Exeter Chiefs 3.35 -4.58 7.90 Bristol 0.62 3.66 -3.00 Sale Sharks -1.92 6.70 -8.60 Gloucester -4.89 4.13 -9.00 Harlequins -5.42 -3.02 -2.40 Newcastle Red Bulls -27.23 -18.45 -8.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol May 16 94 – 33 8.70 TRUE 2 Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls May 17 69 – 12 44.30 TRUE 3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 17 41 – 24 -5.00 FALSE 4 Saracens vs. Gloucester May 17 30 – 14 23.00 TRUE 5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 33 – 47 -5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 Bath -4.40 2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 Sale Sharks -18.30 3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 Northampton Saints 21.20 4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 Saracens 22.40 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 Leicester Tigers 15.60

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50 Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50 Sea Eagles 6.56 0.21 6.30 Warriors 5.80 -1.18 7.00 Sharks 5.76 7.25 -1.50 Dolphins 4.05 1.85 2.20 Storm 2.17 6.96 -4.80 Broncos 0.83 7.06 -6.20 Rabbitohs 0.60 -5.05 5.70 Cowboys -0.30 -2.69 2.40 Raiders -1.60 1.62 -3.20 Knights -4.69 -14.06 9.40 Bulldogs -5.05 2.13 -7.20 Wests Tigers -5.35 -7.26 1.90 Eels -6.88 -0.37 -6.50 Titans -7.94 -8.02 0.10 Dragons -14.22 -6.72 -7.50 Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 15 38 – 16 8.80 TRUE 2 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins May 15 10 – 32 -5.00 TRUE 3 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles May 16 18 – 46 -9.20 TRUE 4 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 16 12 – 18 9.50 FALSE 5 Eels vs. Storm May 16 8 – 34 -6.30 TRUE 6 Titans vs. Knights May 17 12 – 36 0.00 FALSE 7 Warriors vs. Broncos May 17 42 – 12 -3.40 FALSE 8 Panthers vs. Dragons May 17 28 – 6 29.00 TRUE Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Raiders vs. Dolphins May 21 Dolphins -1.70 2 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 22 Storm -3.20 3 Dragons vs. Warriors May 23 Warriors -16.00 4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 23 Sea Eagles 18.50 5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 24 Cowboys 3.10 The post NRL Predictions for Round 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 28.48 26.75 1.70 Sydney Swans 20.78 0.56 20.20 Brisbane Lions 19.79 26.20 -6.40 Hawthorn Hawks 15.89 22.83 -6.90 Fremantle Dockers 15.62 6.56 9.10 Adelaide Crows 11.54 15.32 -3.80 Gold Coast Suns 10.65 10.24 0.40 Collingwood 10.22 11.76 -1.50 Western Bulldogs 9.85 26.06 -16.20 Melbourne Demons 3.97 1.64 2.30 St Kilda Saints 0.91 -7.63 8.50 GWS Giants -3.61 9.54 -13.20 Carlton Blues -5.61 -4.77 -0.80 Port Adelaide Power -6.99 -14.65 7.70 North Melbourne -13.75 -21.71 8.00 Essendon Bombers -26.37 -27.89 1.50 Richmond Tigers -39.51 -29.44 -10.10 West Coast Eagles -39.85 -39.36 -0.50 Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats May 14 76 – 117 9.80 FALSE 2 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood May 15 81 – 75 24.40 TRUE 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power May 15 98 – 73 16.00 TRUE 4 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne May 16 133 – 65 30.70 TRUE 5 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 16 120 – 81 -20.70 FALSE 6 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs May 16 74 – 62 -20.40 FALSE 7 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 61 – 104 -28.70 TRUE 8 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers May 17 109 – 73 41.40 TRUE 9 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants May 17 88 – 71 -32.60 FALSE Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows May 21 Hawthorn Hawks 15.30 2 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 22 Essendon Bombers -13.10 3 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints May 22 Fremantle Dockers 25.70 4 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns May 23 Gold Coast Suns -13.40 5 Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Geelong Cats 18.70 6 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 23 Collingwood 61.10 7 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 23 Port Adelaide Power 9.60 8 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 Brisbane Lions -12.40 9 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons May 24 Western Bulldogs 5.90 The post AFL Predictions for Week 12 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leicester Tigers 11.29 5.55 5.70 Bath 11.06 10.30 0.80 Saracens 10.58 5.03 5.50 Northampton Saints 5.82 -1.47 7.30 Exeter Chiefs 4.97 -4.58 9.60 Bristol 4.15 3.66 0.50 Sale Sharks -1.24 6.70 -7.90 Gloucester -5.47 4.13 -9.60 Harlequins -7.04 -3.02 -4.00 Newcastle Red Bulls -26.25 -18.45 -7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks May 09 21 – 15 2.00 TRUE 2 Bristol vs. Saracens May 10 26 – 41 3.30 FALSE 3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints May 10 41 – 17 10.40 TRUE 4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath May 11 35 – 12 -2.80 FALSE 5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Harlequins May 11 17 – 76 -5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol May 16 Northampton Saints 8.70 2 Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls May 17 Bath 44.30 3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 17 Exeter Chiefs -5.00 4 Saracens vs. Gloucester May 17 Saracens 23.00 5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 Leicester Tigers -5.50

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bulls 9.57 8.86 0.70 Leinster 8.75 13.41 -4.70 Stormers 6.69 4.17 2.50 Glasgow 5.94 6.18 -0.20 Lions 3.18 -1.19 4.40 Munster 2.48 3.65 -1.20 Connacht 1.68 -1.39 3.10 Sharks 1.39 1.29 0.10 Ulster 0.20 -3.24 3.40 Ospreys -2.08 -2.15 0.10 Edinburgh -2.24 2.67 -4.90 Cardiff Rugby -2.26 -2.74 0.50 Scarlets -3.03 -0.54 -2.50 Benetton -6.66 -2.32 -4.30 Dragons -10.20 -15.66 5.50 Zebre -13.41 -11.02 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby May 09 40 – 17 14.10 TRUE 2 Ulster vs. Stormers May 09 38 – 38 0.70 FALSE 3 Bulls vs. Zebre May 09 54 – 19 28.60 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Benetton May 10 46 – 7 12.50 TRUE 5 Leinster vs. Lions May 10 31 – 7 11.10 TRUE 6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 10 27 – 20 1.80 TRUE 7 Connacht vs. Munster May 10 26 – 7 -0.90 FALSE 8 Dragons vs. Edinburgh May 10 15 – 24 0.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers May 16 Stormers -1.90 2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht May 16 Edinburgh 3.10 3 Ulster vs. Glasgow May 16 Ulster 1.30 4 Sharks vs. Zebre May 16 Sharks 21.80 5 Bulls vs. Benetton May 17 Bulls 23.20 6 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 17 Leinster 17.80 7 Scarlets vs. Dragons May 17 Scarlets 9.20 8 Munster vs. Lions May 17 Munster 6.30

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.41 11.56 2.80 Montpellier 5.80 -0.21 6.00 Bordeaux Begles 5.11 4.78 0.30 Section Paloise 4.39 2.21 2.20 Clermont 4.07 1.88 2.20 Stade Rochelais 4.03 1.22 2.80 Stade Francais 3.94 -2.17 6.10 Racing 92 2.37 1.88 0.50 Toulon -0.17 3.49 -3.70 Lyon -0.92 -0.45 -0.50 Castres Olympique -1.06 0.59 -1.70 Bayonne -2.89 1.48 -4.40 USA Perpignan -5.15 -3.37 -1.80 Montauban -21.04 -10.00 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 161 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles May 10 38 – 40 -1.40 TRUE 2 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 10 45 – 14 14.60 TRUE 3 Montpellier vs. Montauban May 10 59 – 7 32.00 TRUE 4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique May 10 27 – 15 11.90 TRUE 5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 10 59 – 17 9.40 TRUE 6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 10 27 – 51 -6.90 TRUE 7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 24 – 26 5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan May 17 Bordeaux Begles 16.80 2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 17 Montpellier -0.40 3 Lyon vs. Bayonne May 17 Lyon 8.50 4 Montauban vs. Stade Francais May 17 Stade Francais -18.50 5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 17 Racing 92 9.00 6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont May 17 Section Paloise 6.80 7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain May 17 Stade Toulousain -3.90

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 24 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hurricanes 13.07 8.29 4.80 Chiefs 12.22 12.36 -0.10 Blues 8.30 8.91 -0.60 Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20 Brumbies 3.91 5.59 -1.70 Reds 0.97 1.74 -0.80 Highlanders -2.99 -3.06 0.10 Western Force -3.91 -6.29 2.40 Waratahs -5.04 -5.84 0.80 Fijian Drua -7.15 -7.64 0.50 Moana Pasifika -13.01 -7.88 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Crusaders vs. Blues May 08 36 – 20 3.90 TRUE 2 Reds vs. Chiefs May 08 21 – 31 -7.40 TRUE 3 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 09 31 – 26 5.60 TRUE 4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes May 09 17 – 50 -20.00 TRUE 5 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 09 32 – 15 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 15 Chiefs 20.20 2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs May 16 Fijian Drua 2.90 3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 16 Blues 0.20 4 Western Force vs. Reds May 16 Western Force 0.10

 

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 14.04 8.77 5.30 Roosters 8.12 9.50 -1.40 Sea Eagles 5.23 0.21 5.00 Sharks 4.78 7.25 -2.50 Warriors 3.64 -1.18 4.80 Broncos 2.99 7.06 -4.10 Dolphins 2.83 1.85 1.00 Rabbitohs 1.83 -5.05 6.90 Storm 0.78 6.96 -6.20 Cowboys -1.43 -2.69 1.30 Raiders -1.60 1.62 -3.20 Wests Tigers -4.02 -7.26 3.20 Bulldogs -4.07 2.13 -6.20 Eels -5.49 -0.37 -5.10 Titans -6.30 -8.02 1.70 Knights -6.33 -14.06 7.70 Dragons -14.99 -6.72 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Dolphins vs. Bulldogs May 07 44 – 12 7.60 TRUE 2 Roosters vs. Titans May 08 28 – 12 19.10 TRUE 3 Cowboys vs. Eels May 08 30 – 33 10.00 FALSE 4 Dragons vs. Knights May 09 10 – 44 -0.30 TRUE 5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks May 09 36 – 12 -2.50 FALSE 6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 09 32 – 4 2.80 TRUE 7 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 10 44 – 16 5.70 TRUE 8 Raiders vs. Panthers May 10 18 – 30 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 15 Sharks 8.80 2 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins May 15 Dolphins -5.00 3 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles May 16 Sea Eagles -9.20 4 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 16 Roosters 9.50 5 Eels vs. Storm May 16 Storm -6.30 6 Titans vs. Knights May 17 Titans 0.00 7 Warriors vs. Broncos May 17 Broncos -3.40 8 Panthers vs. Dragons May 17 Panthers 29.00

 

The post NRL Predictions for Round 11 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 24.72 26.75 -2.00 Brisbane Lions 23.55 26.20 -2.60 Sydney Swans 22.22 0.56 21.70 Hawthorn Hawks 20.26 22.83 -2.60 Fremantle Dockers 14.49 6.56 7.90 Western Bulldogs 12.30 26.06 -13.80 Gold Coast Suns 9.84 10.24 -0.40 Collingwood 8.79 11.76 -3.00 Adelaide Crows 8.74 15.32 -6.60 St Kilda Saints 1.39 -7.63 9.00 GWS Giants 0.06 9.54 -9.50 Melbourne Demons -0.41 1.64 -2.00 Port Adelaide Power -6.18 -14.65 8.50 Carlton Blues -8.06 -4.77 -3.30 North Melbourne -10.95 -21.71 10.80 Essendon Bombers -25.25 -27.89 2.60 Richmond Tigers -40.00 -29.44 -10.60 West Coast Eagles -43.52 -39.36 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 07 88 – 73 3.10 TRUE 2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues May 08 100 – 89 48.20 TRUE 3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs May 08 72 – 74 -8.70 TRUE 4 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans May 09 97 – 105 -24.80 TRUE 5 GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers May 09 103 – 89 40.30 TRUE 6 Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda Saints May 09 89 – 60 4.70 TRUE 7 Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood May 09 122 – 68 9.30 TRUE 8 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles May 10 99 – 67 58.10 TRUE 9 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows May 10 61 – 98 -37.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats May 14 Brisbane Lions 9.80 2 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood May 15 Sydney Swans 24.40 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power May 15 Gold Coast Suns 16.00 4 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne May 16 Adelaide Crows 30.70 5 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 16 Hawthorn Hawks -20.70 6 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs May 16 Western Bulldogs -20.40 7 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 Fremantle Dockers -28.70 8 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers May 17 St Kilda Saints 41.40 9 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants May 17 GWS Giants -32.60

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 11 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hurricanes 12.52 8.29 4.20 Chiefs 12.04 12.36 -0.30 Blues 8.82 8.91 -0.10 Crusaders 7.70 8.41 -0.70 Brumbies 3.67 5.59 -1.90 Reds 1.15 1.74 -0.60 Highlanders -2.95 -3.06 0.10 Western Force -3.67 -6.29 2.60 Waratahs -5.09 -5.84 0.80 Fijian Drua -7.15 -7.64 0.50 Moana Pasifika -12.47 -7.88 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 58 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders May 01 38 – 31 10.20 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Western Force May 01 17 – 20 4.30 FALSE 3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders May 02 24 – 14 -1.70 FALSE 4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues May 02 19 – 45 -15.40 TRUE 5 Reds vs. Brumbies May 02 30 – 21 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Blues May 08 Crusaders 3.90 2 Reds vs. Chiefs May 08 Chiefs -7.40 3 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 09 Highlanders 5.60 4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes May 09 Hurricanes -20.00 5 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 09 Brumbies 12.30

 

The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13 first appeared on Stats Chat.

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Panthers 13.99 8.77 5.20 Roosters 8.46 9.50 -1.00 Sharks 6.56 7.25 -0.70 Broncos 4.70 7.06 -2.40 Warriors 3.64 -1.18 4.80 Sea Eagles 3.53 0.21 3.30 Dolphins 1.17 1.85 -0.70 Rabbitohs 0.04 -5.05 5.10 Cowboys -0.46 -2.69 2.20 Storm -0.76 6.96 -7.70 Raiders -1.55 1.62 -3.20 Bulldogs -2.40 2.13 -4.50 Wests Tigers -2.48 -7.26 4.80 Eels -6.47 -0.37 -6.10 Titans -6.64 -8.02 1.40 Knights -8.52 -14.06 5.50 Dragons -12.81 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys May 01 12 – 28 5.00 FALSE 2 Dolphins vs. Storm May 01 28 – 10 3.80 TRUE 3 Titans vs. Raiders May 02 12 – 28 1.40 FALSE 4 Eels vs. Warriors May 02 14 – 36 -3.50 TRUE 5 Roosters vs. Broncos May 02 38 – 24 6.00 TRUE 6 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 03 42 – 38 -6.10 FALSE 7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 03 52 – 10 8.70 TRUE 8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 03 18 – 16 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Dolphins vs. Bulldogs May 07 Dolphins 7.60 2 Roosters vs. Titans May 08 Roosters 19.10 3 Cowboys vs. Eels May 08 Cowboys 10.00 4 Dragons vs. Knights May 09 Knights -0.30 5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks May 09 Sharks -2.50 6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 09 Sea Eagles 2.80 7 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 10 Storm 5.70 8 Raiders vs. Panthers May 10 Panthers -11.50

 

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Brisbane Lions 26.35 26.20 0.20 Sydney Swans 23.53 0.56 23.00 Geelong Cats 21.39 26.75 -5.40 Hawthorn Hawks 21.34 22.83 -1.50 Fremantle Dockers 13.42 6.56 6.90 Western Bulldogs 12.90 26.06 -13.20 Collingwood 12.12 11.76 0.40 Adelaide Crows 8.82 15.32 -6.50 Gold Coast Suns 7.98 10.24 -2.30 St Kilda Saints 3.26 -7.63 10.90 GWS Giants 2.07 9.54 -7.50 Melbourne Demons 1.59 1.64 -0.00 Port Adelaide Power -6.78 -14.65 7.90 Carlton Blues -10.85 -4.77 -6.10 North Melbourne -12.27 -21.71 9.40 Essendon Bombers -27.26 -27.89 0.60 Richmond Tigers -40.08 -29.44 -10.60 West Coast Eagles -45.51 -39.36 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 30 93 – 93 -11.20 FALSE 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers May 01 102 – 114 14.50 FALSE 3 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 01 76 – 75 18.30 TRUE 4 Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions May 02 79 – 143 -38.70 TRUE 5 West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers May 02 88 – 99 8.60 FALSE 6 Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne May 02 135 – 86 43.70 TRUE 7 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints May 02 69 – 108 -9.70 TRUE 8 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons May 03 131 – 114 35.90 TRUE 9 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants May 03 83 – 63 16.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 07 Fremantle Dockers 3.10 2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues May 08 Brisbane Lions 48.20 3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs May 08 Western Bulldogs -8.70 4 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans May 09 Sydney Swans -24.80 5 GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers May 09 GWS Giants 40.30 6 Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda Saints May 09 Gold Coast Suns 4.70 7 Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood May 09 Geelong Cats 9.30 8 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles May 10 Melbourne Demons 58.10 9 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows May 10 Adelaide Crows -37.90

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 10 first appeared on Stats Chat.

RNZ has a report on the purported costs of weather warnings for (ex-)Cyclone Vaianu a few weeks ago.

Northland spending was down 48 percent. Auckland’s was down 46.5 percent, Waikato was down 52.58 percent, Bay of Plenty down 68.32 percent, Gisborne down 51.6 percent and Hawke’s Bay was down 56.34 percent.

That’s at least two more decimal places than I would want to use, but let’s assume the numbers are correct.  There are still a few issues with the attribution to weather warnings.

First, we can’t easily distinguish the effects of the warnings, the effects of the forecast, and the effects of the storm.  Presumably no-one is suggesting that weather forecasts should be edited to make approaching storms look less scary, but some of the reduction in spending would have been a response to the heavy rain and strong winds in the forecast, regardless of a specific warning.  Even if the forecasts were sanitised, people who remember, say, the Auckland Anniversary Weekend storm or Cyclone Gabrielle might want to be cautious about the risks of an approaching storm.  The report says the reductions in spending were highest in the areas where the forecast storm was most intense, but that’s what you’d expect if people were reacting to the forecast rather than to the North-Island-wide warning.

Second, there’s an economic issue that should be clear already to people in or near local government, because it’s part of how convention centres, stadiums, and major cultural events are oversold.  It’s much easier to get people to change where and when they spend money than to change how much money they spend.  Suppose you were planning a barbeque for your kid’s birthday on April 12th. You might well have cancelled it because of the storm warning, but that wouldn’t mean your kid didn’t get a birthday this year. You’d have the event some other time.  Similarly, if you wanted to see a movie (Project Hail Mary seems popular) or you needed to buy a new vacuum cleaner or you wanted to see the fireworks and racing at Waikaraka Park you might well not go out that day, but you might well go some other day when you could easily get to the cinema or Briscoes or when the racing and fireworks were rescheduled1.  The reduction in spending on the day of the storm is a substantial overestimate of the impact of the storm on spending. (In the same way, stadiums collect money, but a lot of it is money that people would otherwise still have spent in the city).

And finally, there’s an important issue about uncertain predictions.  The storm didn’t in fact cause major damage across the North Island, but that doesn’t mean the warning was wrong.  If you play Russian roulette and survive, that doesn’t mean it was a good bet and you should do it again, it just means you got lucky.  The report gives no reason whatsoever to assume that less caution was warranted for this storm than for the two big storms in 2023 (one of which was seriously underpredicted).  It’s not inconceivable that our weather warnings are poorly calibrated, but any decision of this sort should be based on some actual evidence that they are.

1. Last night. Ask me how I know.

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