The case for AGI by 2030
Evidence-led look at why AGI might be feasible by 2030, the trends pushing capabilities forward, and where they could plateau.
AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
dwarkesh.comThe economy will literally double every year afterwards
The case for AGI by 2030
Evidence-led look at why AGI might be feasible by 2030, the trends pushing capabilities forward, and where they could plateau.
How Does Claude 4 Think? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
Scaling reinforcement learning, tracing circuits, and the path to fully autonomous agents
Satya Benson - Modeling a Constant-Compute Automated AI R&D Process
We'd like to know how much limits on compute scaling will constrain AI R&D. This post attempts to clarify thinking about how to use economic models to explore the question, using Jones-style idea production functions and examining the automation feedback loop.