The case for AGI by 2030
80000hours.orgEvidence-led look at why AGI might be feasible by 2030, the trends pushing capabilities forward, and where they could plateau.
Broad AI Timelines: Planning Under Uncertainty
When will AI transform the world? Toby Ord argues we should accept uncertainty and adopt “broad AI timelines” to guide better decisionmaking and planning.
Broad Timelines — Toby Ord
No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down. But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously — if we act with epi