Futurist prediction methods and accuracy

Zhengdong Wang’s personal website

A collection of the best technical, social, and economic arguments Humans have a good track record of innovation. The mechanization of agriculture, steam engines, electricity, modern medicine, computers, and the internet—these technologies radically changed the world. Still, the trend growth rate of GDP per capita in the world's frontier

The last few years have seen a wave of hysteria about LLMs becoming conscious and then suddenly attempting to kill humanity. This hysteria, ...