Automating AI R&D might lead to a software intelligence explosion, where AI improving AI algorithms leads to accelerating progress without any additional hardware. One of the strongest objections to a software intelligence explosion is that AI progress could get bottlenecked by compute: making progress requires compute-heavy experiments, and perhaps beyond a certain point it won’t be possible to accelerate any more without increasing the amount of compute available. In this post, I set out the reasons I don’t ultimately find this objection convincing, and conclude that there’s a good chance that compute bottlenecks don’t slow down a software intelligence explosion until its late stages.
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