Introduction I just got back from the annual J.P. Morgan (JPM) Healthcare Conference, which got me thinking about the tension between optimism and pessimism in our industry. That reminded me of a surprising insight from Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History: even days before the market collapsed, strong optimists (bulls) and pessimists (bears) were making their case for the U.S. economy. Today, biopharma faces a similar dynamic, raising an important question: what are the bull vs. bear arguments for 2026? And what events could tip the balance? In my view, there are four areas of U.S. biopharma to watch in 2026: scientific innovation, capital markets, China, and policy. For each, it’s a fascinating race between bull and bear arguments. Given my perch, I will spend this blog digging into the first three categories, as I am not a policy expert! But first, let’s discuss the overarching bull and bear cases in 2026. What are the bull and bear arguments for U.S. biopharma in 2026? I read Sorkin’s book at the end of 2025, while visiting my family for the holidays, which is why it was top of mind going into JPM. In the midst of reading the book, I reached out to colleagues and friends in biopharma for their perspective on bull vs. bear arguments in 2026. I also read published reports (here, here, here, here, here, here, here; my AI summary of analyst reports here) and re-watched Bruce Booth’s outstanding Year in Review (2025 video link here). I pressured tested my ideas during JPM and asked for input via LinkedIn. Those conversations and reports informed the perspective I share below – and what events to watch as the year unfolds. The bull argument starts with unmet medical need. Just look around – there […]
No pages have linked to this URL yet.