I want to take a minute, amidst the Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.3-Codex hysteria, to capture some of the currently-open questions about AI progress and its impact on software engineering. There’s uncertainty at lots of different levels about what the future will look like, and good arguments for very different outcomes. This is partly for my reference (as these questions keep coming up it’s nice to have the obvious arguments in one place) and partly to document my predictions. I’m going to start at the high level and work my way down.
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