On a recent Dwarkesh podcast, Sholto Douglas, an AI researcher working on reinforcement learning at Anthropic said: “There is this whole spectrum of crazy futures. But the one that I feel we’re almost guaranteed to get—this is a strong statement to make—is one where at the very least, you get a drop-in white-collar worker at some point in the next five years. I think it’s very likely in two, but it seems almost overdetermined in five. On the grand scheme of things, those are kind of irrelevant timeframes. It’s the same either way” 1.
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