The case for multi-decade AI timelines

When will AI transform the world? Toby Ord argues we should accept uncertainty and adopt “broad AI timelines” to guide better decisionmaking and planning.

Could working on AI risks be the highest-impact career choice today? Explore why AI may trigger rapid, dramatic societal change — and what you can do about it.

No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down. But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously — if we act with epi